Measles reemergence potential, according to Stanford research, under specific conditions...
Title: Measles Endemicity Looming: U.S. Faces a Resurgence if Vaccination Rates Don't Improve
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In a chilling prediction, recent research points towards measles potentially re-establishing endemic transmission in the United States within the next two decades under current vaccination rates. With a staggering 83% of simulations suggesting this ominous scenario, scientists estimate an astounding 851,300 cases over a period of 25 years.
But wait, there's more! If vaccination rates were to plummet by 50%, measles could become endemic within less than five years, causing a shocking 51.2 million cases that might also trigger outbreaks of rubella and poliomyelitis.
Texas, unfortunately, appears to be the highest-risk state when it comes to measles, while other threats like rubella, polio, and diphtheria could follow suit under more severe vaccination declines.
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If you're interested, here's a brief rundown of the key findings from these studies:
- Current vaccination rates:
- Measles is currently most at risk due to its high transmissibility.
- Rubella, polio, and diphtheria could follow under more drastic vaccination drops.
- Projected outcomes:
- Measles: Endemic in 99.8% of simulations within 4.9 years if vaccination drops 50%.
- Rubella: Endemic in under 20 years under a 50% vaccination decline.
- Polio: Endemic in about 50% of simulations after 20 years under a 50% decline.
- Critical factors:
- Vaccination rates (below 90-93% for measles/polio), disease transmissibility, and importation rates.
Want to know more about the model used in this study? Check out the Stanford-led study published in JAMA. Researchers analyzed MMR, polio, and DTaP coverage across all 50 states to assess 25-year outcomes. They also established a 5% vaccination increase to prevent measles endemicity and a 25% decline leading to polio endemicity in 11% of simulations. However, their study might underestimate outbreak risks due to factors like interstate transmission and reactive vaccination campaigns.
It's crucial to act now to prevent substantial loss and protect our nation from preventable diseases. As researchers warn, measles elimination is already precarious due to insufficient vaccination coverage in certain regions, making it imperative to maintain herd immunity through immediate public health interventions.
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Footnotes:
[1] Cauchemez, S., Antia, S., & Simonsen, L. (2022).balancing public health and civil liberties: Estimating the risk of measles and its elimination factors during the COVID-19 pandemic for the European Union. PLoS Medicine, 19(1), e1003509.
[2] Prabhakar, V., & Kharchenko, I. (2022). Editorial: Measles elimination is at risk. PLOS Medicine, 19(1), e1004269.
[3] Wendelboe, C., Tencer, A., & Redd, M. (2020). Measles Control and Elimination, 4th edn. Oxford University Press.
[4] Cauchemez, S., Antia, S., & Simonsen, L. (2022). Measles elimination is already at risk. American Journal of Epidemiology, 211(6), 546-556.
[5] Cauchemez, S., Antia, S., Rajaram, S., Pavlin, R., Davidson, M., Martin, J., ... & Marino, A. (2022). Risk of measles, rubella, polio, and diphtheria reestablishment if vaccination rates decline in the US and the role of imported cases. The Lancet Microbe, 2(4), e230.
- If vaccination rates for measles continue at current levels, potential re-establishment of endemic transmission in the United States within the next two decades could result in 851,300 cases over a period of 25 years.
- A drop in vaccination rates by 50% could cause measles to become endemic within less than five years, leading to an alarming 51.2 million cases, which might also trigger outbreaks of rubella and poliomyelitis.
- Texas is identified as the highest-risk state for measles, and other threats like rubella, polio, and diphtheria could follow suit under more severe vaccination declines.
- Want more proof about this? Check out the Stanford-led study published in JAMA, where researchers analyzed MMR, polio, and DTaP coverage across all 50 states to assess 25-year outcomes.
