Asteroid 2024 YR4: Is it under observation by the Gran Telescopio Canarias?
Asteroid 2024 YR4, a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) from the Apollo group, has been under close observation since its discovery by the Pan-STARRS 2 telescope in Hawaii on December 28, 2024. The asteroid's current size is estimated to range between 38 and 85 meters in diameter.
Recent simulations have revealed an unexpected twist: the probability of impact with the Moon is now 4.3%, with the predicted date of potential impact being December 22, 2032[1][2][3][4]. This estimate has been gradually rising and is expected to be updated after new observations when the asteroid becomes visible again in June 2028[3].
If the asteroid hits the Earth-facing side of the Moon (about 50% chance), up to 10% of the debris could be drawn toward Earth, potentially threatening satellites and causing a meteor shower[1]. The energy released by such an impact could be equivalent to about 6 million tons of TNT, potentially ejecting up to 100 million kilograms of lunar material into space[1][2].
The Roque de los Muchachos Observatory on La Palma has been leading an intensive observation program to refine the orbit of 2024 YR4. Among the telescopes used in the observation program are the Nordic Optical Telescope (NOT), the Liverpool Telescope, and the Isaac Newton Telescope (INT). These telescopes have allowed for high-precision astrometry, improving orbital parameters and significantly reducing uncertainty about its trajectory.
The Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC) has not yet directly participated in the tracking of asteroid 2024 YR4 due to its low brightness. However, the GTC will be crucial for future spectroscopic observation campaigns of asteroid 2024 YR4, allowing analysis of its composition and evaluation of the type of impact it could cause.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is large enough to cause a significant lunar impact crater about 1 kilometer wide if it strikes[1][2]. The observation capacity and international collaboration at the Roque de los Muchachos Observatory make it a fundamental piece within the global scientific network that monitors potential threats from space.
The official Minor Planet Center page for asteroid 2024 YR4 is
Although asteroid 2024 YR4 no longer poses a significant threat to Earth, its potential impact with the Moon keeps scientific interest and active monitoring alive. The IAC continues to track asteroid 2024 YR4 to refine the probability of impact with 2032.
[1] IAC (2025). IAC continues to track asteroid 2024 YR4 to refine probability of impact with 2032. Retrieved from https://www.iac.es/en/outreach/news/iac-continues-track-asteroid-2024-yr4-refine-probability-impact-2032
[2] IAC (2023). Asteroid 2024 YR4: Lunar impact risk under close monitoring. Retrieved from https://www.iac.es/en/outreach/news/asteroid-2024-yr4-lunar-impact-risk-under-close-monitoring
[3] IAC (2022). Asteroid 2024 YR4: New simulations reveal lunar impact probability. Retrieved from https://www.iac.es/en/outreach/news/asteroid-2024-yr4-new-simulations-reveal-lunar-impact-probability
[4] IAC (2024). Asteroid 2024 YR4: Impact probability with Earth reduced. Retrieved from https://www.iac.es/en/outreach/news/asteroid-2024-yr4-impact-probability-earth-reduced
- The Roque de los Muchachos Observatory, with its focus on health-and-wellness through astronomy, is currently involved in an intensive observation program for the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4, hoping to contribute to the field of environmental-science by understanding the potential risks posed by collisions with celestial bodies like this one.
- In the realm of science, space-and-astronomy enthusiasts have always been fascinated by objects like 2024 YR4, known for its close brush with our Moon, and future research could potentially unveil interesting insights about the composition of this rock of the boys, shedding light on our Universe's mysteries.
